Recorded Future Warns of Crime, Extremism, and Cyber Risks Around FIFA World Cup

Recorded Future assessed the security environment for the 2026 FIFA World Cup across Canada, Mexico, and the United States and found that Mexico’s host cities face the highest physical security risk, while opportunistic theft is the most common threat to travelers in all three countries. The report said there was no specific credible terrorist plot tied to the tournament at the time of writing, but warned that US-based violent extremists, particularly Islamic State supporters, are the most likely actors to target World Cup-related soft targets such as fan zones, transit systems, and hospitality venues. It also said transnational criminal organizations in Mexico are likely to exploit the influx of visitors through theft, extortion, kidnapping, fraud, and possible disruption of transport corridors, especially after violence linked to the killing of CJNG leader El Mencho in Jalisco.

On the cyber side, the report rated the United States and Canada as facing very high ransomware and network intrusion risk, while Mexico was assessed as having moderate cyber risk but elevated concerns tied to historical spyware abuse and organized crime-linked violence. Canada was described as physically low risk overall, though the report noted Ontario police were linked to possible Paragon Graphite spyware infrastructure and that host cities have expanded temporary surveillance measures. The assessment also warned that protests and strikes are likely across multiple host cities, with Mexico presenting the greatest likelihood of demonstrations disrupting travel and infrastructure, including prior blockades near Mexico City’s Banorte Stadium.