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Ransomware Ecosystem Fragmentation and the Emergence of DragonForce

Updated 3mo agoFirst seen Jan 19, 20262 sources

Threat intelligence reporting describes DragonForce as a rapidly evolving ransomware operation that brands itself as a “cartel” and runs an affiliate service called Ransombay, offering customizable payload options and reportedly advertising an 80% revenue split to attract pentesters and initial access brokers. Researchers assess DragonForce’s tooling as heavily derived from LockBit 3.0 and Conti, and report signs of consolidation behavior, including infrastructure/code overlap with groups such as BlackLock, RansomHub, and LockBit; one cited incident involved DragonForce abusing a rival’s misconfiguration and a Local File Inclusion (LFI) weakness to obtain information including credentials, followed by defacement of the rival’s leak site.

Separate industry reporting indicates ransomware victimization continued to rise sharply in 2025, with GuidePoint Security tracking a 58% year-over-year increase and 7,515 claimed victims across leak sites, alongside a more fragmented landscape (124 named groups, up 46% from 2024). The same reporting highlights concentration of victimization in the United States (55%) and heavy targeting of manufacturing, with healthcare also significantly impacted (500+ victims) and Qilin described as the most prolific RaaS group in 2025 with disproportionate healthcare targeting—context that aligns with the broader trend of many smaller, high-volume groups rather than a few dominant actors.

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Ransomware Ecosystem Fragmentation and the Emergence of DragonForce
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EVENT TIMELINE

How this story unfolded

8 events from the most recent confirmed update back to the earliest known activity.

8 EVENTS
Jan 19, 20265mo ago

S2W publishes technical analysis of DragonForce

S2W released research describing DragonForce as a rapidly growing cartel-style ransomware operation tied to LockBit, Conti, BlackLock, and RansomHub, and said it recovered a decryptor for a specific victim due to a hardcoded RSA private key.

DragonForce accesses and defaces BlackLock infrastructure

S2W linked DragonForce to an incident in which the group exploited a misconfiguration and a local file inclusion flaw to gain access to BlackLock infrastructure and deface its leak site.

Jan 16, 20265mo ago

GuidePoint publishes 2025 ransomware trends report

On publication of the report, GuidePoint assessed that law-enforcement actions had fragmented the ransomware ecosystem into many smaller groups, with the United States and manufacturing remaining the most targeted and healthcare suffering more than 500 victims.

Dec 31, 20256mo ago

December 2025 reaches 814 claimed ransomware victims

GuidePoint said December 2025 peaked at 814 claimed ransomware victims, up 42% year over year, making it the most active month highlighted in the report.

Q4 2025 records 2,287 ransomware victims

GuidePoint reported that the fourth quarter of 2025 alone saw 2,287 unique claimed ransomware victims, underscoring accelerating activity late in the year.

Ransomware victim claims rise sharply across 2025

GuidePoint Security's GRIT tracked 7,515 claimed ransomware victims in 2025, a 58% year-over-year increase and the highest annual total the firm has recorded.

Jan 1, 20242y ago

Law enforcement disrupts LockBit, but the group later resurges

GuidePoint reported that LockBit experienced a disruption in 2024 and later re-emerged, illustrating that major law-enforcement pressure did not end overall ransomware activity.

Dec 1, 20233y ago

DragonForce ransomware first detected

Researchers said the DragonForce ransomware group was first observed in late 2023, marking the emergence of a new extortion operation later described as a cartel-style service.

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